DEMOGRAPHIC DISINFORMATION AS
AN ANTI-ZIONIST SCARE TACTIC
By Yoram Ettinger
The following document is based on Israel's Bureau of Statistics, on pre-1948 (British) Census of Palestine and on the (British Survey of Palestine. Demographic disinformation has been employed as a scare tactic to drive Israel back to the indefensible 1949 (pre-1967) Lines, as it was in 1948 to stop Ben Gurion from declaring independence, and as it was in 1900 to divert Herzl away from the Jewish Statehood idea. However, all pessimistic demographic projections crashed against the rocks of reality.
How interesting that the mentor of contemporary Prophets of Demographic Doom was Israel's Chief Statistician, who failed in his many attempts to dissuade Ben Gurion from declaring independence! His failed methodology has underlined the erroneous demographic projections by his disciples, who ridiculed the idea of Soviet Jewry Aliya (immigration) to Israel.
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THE JEWISH STATE AND A PALESTINIAN STATE: MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE OR INCLUSIVE?
THE DEMOGRAPHIC SCARE -
DISINFORMATION EXPOSED (part 2)
(part one was published on November 7, 2003)
JEWISH MAJORITY WEST OF THE JORDAN RIVER SINCE 1967
*FACT: 80:20 Jewish majority within the Green Line since 1967, in spite of pessimistic projections, the inclusion of East Jerusalem, and unification of Arab families.
*FACT: 60:40 Jewish majority west of the Jordan River since 1967, in spite of pessimistic projections. In 2003: 5.4MN Jews and 3.7MN Arabs (1.2MN within the Green Line, 1,5MN in Judea & Samaria, 1MN in Gaza).
*FACT: In 1922 - 85,000 Jews (11%) and 672,000 Arabs west of the Jordan River, in 1948 - 650,000 Jews (35%), and by 1952 the ratio was 50:50 due to Jewish immigration, which has been severely underestimated by pessimistic projections.
THE PESSIMISTIC DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
*Pessimistic projections have ignored the significance of Jewish immigration (each year since 1882), the declining Arab birth rate, the rise of Jewish birth rate and Arab emigration. Prof. De La Pergolla stated on October 23, 1987 that Soviet Jewry would not immigrate to Israel. One million did! Current immigration potential is 1-1.5 million.
*Linear extrapolation has derailed pessimistic projections. It erroneously assumes that present trends would persist in the future. The longer the projection, the worse the error.
*The late chief statistician, Prof. Roberto Bacchi (the mentor of contemporary pessimistic projections), contended in 1940 that in 1970 there would be 4 million Arabs and 1 million Jews in Israel. The known Jewish historian, Shimon Dubnov (who opposed the idea of a Jewish State), stated in 1900 that by 2000 there would be a Jewish minority of 500,000 Jews in Israel.
*Linear extrapolation failed Prof. Bacchi's students, in 1967, when they projected an Arab majority west of the Jordan River by 2000.
SHARP DECLINE IN ARAB BIRTH RATE
*In 1970 there were 8 children per Arab family. In 2003 - 4 children per "Green Line" Arab family and 5.6 in Judea&Samaria.
*Arab birth rate was 3 times the Jewish rate in 1967 and less than 2 times in 2003 (2.9 children per Jewish family - the highest in the Western world).
THE BOTTOM LINE
*If the pessimistic projections were realistic, then they should also apply to the Galilee, Negev and Jerusalem.
*If Herzl and Ben Gurion would have acted in accordance with demography, there would not have been a Jewish State!
DEMOGRAPHY CAN BE CHANGED VIA IMMIGRATION, ECONOMY AND EDUCATION.
THE THREATENING TOPOGRAPHY OF JUDEA&SAMARIA CANNOT BE CHANGED.