By Emanuel A. Winston

Middle East Analyst and Commentator

In mid-January a terrifying, although not surprising report was revealed to the public. Dated December 10, 1996, compiled and researched by THE US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES TASK FORCE ON TERRORISM &

UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE, it is entitled: "APPROACHING THE NEW CYCLE OF ARAB-ISRAELI FIGHTING". It may be assumed that this information and more was already known by our US Intelligence agencies and the President.

In brief, this report tells us that for some time "the supreme leaders, civilians and military, of most Arab States, as well as Iraq and Pakistan are convinced that the present vulnerability of Israel is so great that there is a unique opportunity begin the process leading to the destruction of Israel. They believe that the Muslim world should not miss this historic window of opportunity. Therefore, these Muslim leaders have finalized numerous strategies and tactical alliances heretofore non-existent in the region."

This include acquiring NBC, nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, in a mix with conventional weapons, e.g. tanks, aircraft and soldiers, all in massive overwhelming numbers. Pakistan will have fulfilled its role as incubator for the Islamic Nuclear Bomb. It is expected that Syria will be the planned spark that ignites the war by bringing its troops close to Israel's borders on the Golan and Lebanon, provoking Israel into a no choice pre-emptive strike . This will provide the justification for the other war pact members to join Syria while giving the West an excuse to NOT protest the Arab armies' assault.

At this time each of the aggressor nations are frantically building additional military stocks which are both conventional and non-conventional. Depth in military reserves allows a coalition of Arab forces to cause Israel to wear down and use up its reserves of men and material. (Recall how in 1973, when Israel was desperately short of munitions, President Nixon and Secretary Kissinger withheld re-supply until the very last moment in order to force Israel's compliance with Arab demands.)

The plan of attack includes again embargoing oil to the West to persuade the US not to attempt re-supply in time nor to assist in any way. The Europeans who have been equipping Iraq, Iran, Syria with unconventional technology and weapons will not be difficult to persuade. They already know the war is coming and wish to protect their future Arab markets for arms, etc. They can be counted upon to close their airfields and ports to American re-supply for Israel. However, they can be relied upon to continue shipping munitions to Arab nations.

Within Israel and on its borders Arafat's Palestinians will cause planned havoc. Recall how Arafat's Palestinians living in Kuwait, acting on orders as a fifth column, collaborated with Saddam Hussein's army to capture Kuwait. Recall how the Palestinians joined in the pillage and rape side by side with Iraqi soldiers. For this the Kuwaiti and Saudis expelled all Palestinians to Jordan. In this coming war, Arafat's Palestinian Police in coordination with Hamas will begin blowing up key targets, road junctions preventing mobilization of Israel's civilian reserve soldiers from reaching their units at the front. In Judea and Samaria roads will be mined and Israeli access blocked by shoulder fired anti-tank missiles now smuggled in under the benign neglect of the governments of Peres/Netanyahu.

This low level conflict is intended tactically to hinder Israel's heavy battle armor and artillery from reaching the Jordan Valley where a coalition of Arab armies will advance under their mobile missile umbrella. The Palestinians already have shoulder-fired ground-to-air missiles, some of which are US Stingers smuggled from Afghanistan through Iran to Arafat's mix of armed Police and terrorist groups. These deadly missiles will cause heavy losses to Israeli aircraft trying to slow the advance of Arab troops across the Jordan Valley. The entire West Bank under Arab control will act as a barrier to delay mobilization of Israeli forces, allowing Arab forces to spread out and move west toward Jerusalem.

During these internal assaults, Syria, Iraq and Iran will launch a mix of missiles at Israel's cities and military targets. Egypt has been accumulating SCUD missiles from North Korea and is likely to join the salvo. Israeli civilians make up most of the standby reserve military and, therefore, hitting the cities can be equally effective as hitting a prepared hardened military target. Airfields will be targeted by missiles with sub-munitions (small bomblets) which destroy runways to keep Israeli aircraft from taking off or landing. Missiles may be loaded with gas and chemicals so the runways could not be quickly repaired, troops and civilians are killed.


It can be safely assumed that the oil regions of the Gulf States, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia will be taken over as each of the aggressor Arab nations attempts to claim the oil rich fields. Each will assert that they are merely protecting their rich Arab neighbors but the region will thereafter remain carved up. Egypt can be expected to try absorbing the Saudi fields, possibly with the knowledge and assistance of US oil interests. Iraq and Iran will undoubtedly race each other to take over the Gulf oil States. Since the Saudi fields are closer to Iraq and Iran - they may arrive before Egypt. Once the regional oil is firmly in the hands of various radical Arab nations, they will dictate terms to the US, Europe and Japan. US planners no doubt believe that they can come to terms with the new owners but, given rising Islamic fervor against the "Great Satan of America", they may be shocked at their reception. Don't be surprised if the occupying Arab forces destroy (burn) the fields, as Saddam did in Kuwait just for spite. The Arabs may be compatible allies when Israelis are the target but they will fight each other for the oil.


Presumably Israel was to assist the US in keeping the oil fields as a de facto US property. Iran is considered the main American enemy. Israel was intended as 'cannon fodder' to blunt Iran's advance until US forces arrive. Unfortunately what Israel doesn't understand is that she is considered expendable. First, Israel was to use its air power to destroy as much of Iran's forces and missile assets as possible../...until her forces were used up. Next Israel would become the alternate prime target for Iran's missiles so those missiles would not be targeted at Saudi Arabia. Israel would be used as a staging area for incoming US aircraft with supplies once again making her a prime target. Note! The Arabs, Saudi, Kuwait et al have refused US forces use of their airfields, although they accept our supplies. They don't want to be a missile target as Saudi became during the Gulf War.


Prior to initiating the coming war, words of peace will be bandied about. Americans and Europeans will engage in a great deal of diplomatic peace talk while the Arabs consolidate their war option. Arafat will go through his usual routine of demanding concessions, starting and stopping terrorist activities, protesting US state diplomatic intervention, getting new concessions, turning down the heat for a few months and then beginning the process again. Israeli leadership will dither and be easily misled as they were baited to make further concessions for peace. This has been the Arab pattern. They easily confuse Israeli and Western intelligence as to their ultimate goal.

The oil nations of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the other Gulf States will be assured that they have nothing to worry about from the aggressor Arab nations. The US will go along with these assurances, again demonstrating their total lack of understanding of the Arab mind and radical Islamic militancy. Ponderous meetings at the State Department and with other Western leaders will conclude that they may buy time if Israel is delivered to the Arab coalition. They will be wrong as they usually are, except their errors of judgement may cause Israel's annihilation and the oil will be in the controlling hands of Islam which hates the Christian West. Note! I have deliberately not spoken about Israel's own options for survival which remain in the hands of its Prime Minister and military.


The Arab war plan does indeed call for the annihilation of the Jewish State but there is another target. The Palestinians have been a hated thorn to most of the Arab world. While the Arab dictators used the Palestinians as a terrorist front to recover Arab pride for past battlefield defeats, they never allowed them to settle as citizens in their nations. They know that once these clever hostile people have an operating state they can and will cause havoc in the Arab world. They will constantly demand money, using the "or else" blackmail as in the past. Therefore, during this coming war the two targets are both the Jews and the Palestinians. While the Arab leaders consider the Palestinians as expendable, they will be used as a fifth column within Israel to cause as much damage as possible at the start of the next War.

As Saddam gassed the Kurds and the Iranians, so too the Palestinians will be killed off by their brethren, both east and west of the Jordan River. Arafat may already know something of this. In Gaza, he is building bunkers encased in concrete that are four stories deep in rock. King Hussein of Jordan, whose nation comprises 70% Palestinians will be eliminated by the militant Muslims,, along with most of Jordan's Palestinian population.

President Bush's declaration of the coming `New World Order' is reminiscent of Hitler's plan called the 1000 year Reich. Our American intelligence planners are also looking ahead 500 or 1000 years - which is their job. Most (if not all) of this grandiose planning has failed in the past. It can also be expected to fail in the future. Arrogant men, playing G-d with nations, choosing who shall live and who shall die for the sake of American financial interests has always been self-defeating. Partnering with terrorist nations and selling out our friends buys us nothing.

In 1973 our American government threatened Israel with a cut off of aid, supplies, etc. if it struck pre-empterily against Syria and Egypt who were gathering to attack. We even knew the date of the planned Yom Kippur attack but withheld this vital intelligence until it was too late for Israel to mount a proper defense or offense. 6,000 Israelis died because of American perfidy. Once again we were playing G-d with the existence of an entire people because we think it would please and appease the Arabs while benefitting American oil interests.

Here again, as we read the terrible conclusion of a Congressional Report on a planned early war, our President and Congress remain mute. We only hear one-sided words from the Administration that Israel must comply with a bad peace while the other side prepares for war but we don't hear any US objections to the Arab Coalition's war plans. Our European allies are selling the most terrible weapons on an accelerated delivery schedule knowing their clients are engaged in a war coalition dedicated to a genocidal attack. We Americans../...our President, some in Congress, our State Department, our Intelligence agencies know this and have opted to do nothing. During the Nuremberg Tribunal of the Nazi, war criminals the West enacted laws subsequently codified in the United Nations mandating that all nations are obligated to NOT assist but to actively interfere with any country's plans for Genocide of another people. Will our President and other world leaders be marked in history as war criminals who knowingly aided nations engaged in planned genocide before and after the fact?

Mr. President, there is a report available to you that specifies that the nations of Syria, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and Egypt are engaged in a war coalition for the purpose of annihilating Israel. No doubt, you already know the contents of this report since your Intelligence Agencies ought to know often by years the planning of our Arab Allies and enemies. Further, it is clear that concurrently with this attack, the Arab radicals will take control of the oil in the Gulf States, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia. You already know these things. All that remains is to ask: "What are you prepared to do?" Lastly, "are you prepared to assist our democratic ally Israel in real time and allow it to defend itself without tying its hands as we have so often in the past?"

Clearly, it is Israel's own decision as to whether it will fight to live or please its friends and enemies by dying.

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