An Editorial (Remember, the future is not fixed. We can change it for good or evil.)
ISRAEL IN THE 21ST CENTURY
Three Alternate Futures
By Bernard J. Shapiro
Not having the power of prophecy, this article is a projection of Israel's current trends into the future. One would not expect such a projection to be 100% accurate on every detail. It should however stay within fairly accurate parameters. You may want to save this paper to verify my projections.
Apart from my alternate realities, there is a fantasy shared by many Jews. That fantasy is of a Messianic Age where Arab and Jew will live in peace and prosper together. A fantasy of no more war, no more bloodshed, no more hatred. I did consider this as a fourth alternate reality, but rejected it on the basis of total lack of substantive evidence of its being possible.
It did however remind me of a story from the Moscow Zoo. During the 70's when the Soviet 'peace offensive' was at its height, there was an exhibit at the Moscow Zoo featuring a lion and a lamb living peacefully in the same cage. Tourists were amazed at this proof positive of possibility of peace. One reporter was not that convinced. After hours he showed up at the zoo and went talk to the zookeeper. Tell me the truth: "What is going on here?" The zookeeper was nonplused and answered quickly: " No big deal. We put a new lamb in the cage each morning."
ALTERNATE FUTURE #1 - ISRAEL CEASES TO BE A JEWISH STATE
Israel continues its present course of sanctifying and making Oslo holy. Events follow as such:
1. 90% of Judea, Samaria and Gaza are given to Arafat.
2. A few Jewish areas remain but transit routes are controlled by hostile Arabs.
3. The Golan is given to Syria
4. There are promises of peace, access to water, early warning stations
5. Syria reneges on promises in line #4
6. Israel does nothing as it faces Syrian artillery overlooking the Galilee
7. Arafat is given Jerusalem including the Temple Mount but is not satisfied.
8. An intifada begins in the Galilee and the Negev as Arafat demands that those areas be annexed to Palestine.
9. The United Nations, the US State Department, the NY Times plus other morally deprived international bodies demand an immediate return to Palestine of these occupied territories.
10. Arafat, with European technical help manages to draw out the entire water supply in the Judean-Samarian mountain aquifer (from which Israel gets 30% of its water) for use by Palestinians.
11. Syria blocks the flow of water to Israel from the Jordan River sources on the Golan. These supplied Israel with 30% of its water.
12. Israel is forced to give up agriculture, watering lawns, washing cars, and even regular bathing. The odor of Oslo becomes overpowering.
13. Arafat demands that Israel accept the return of 7,000,000 refugees and the US State Department agrees that this will improve the climate for peace.
14. Even without Israel's agreement on refugees, hundreds of thousands pour into Palestine. This creates an uncontrollable pressure to expand territorially.
15. Many Arabs infiltrate into Israel and expand greatly the local Israeli Arab population.
16. Arabs began to demand that Israel cease being a Jewish country and just be a democracy.
17. The leftist/labor government of Israel is in coalition with the Arab parties so #16 is considered and passes the Knesset.
18. The early stages of removing the Jewish character of the state involve: taking the Magen David out of the Israeli flag, the word Jew out of Hatikvah, the national anthem, adding Moslem Holy Days, and especially re-writing all the history books to show the Jews as aggressors who stole Palestine and are prone to kill Arabs to use their blood to make matzoh.
19. Soon after becoming bi-national, Israel ceases to exist and the state merges with Palestine. The Jews become Dhimmis or second class citizens as in most Moslem countries.
ALTERNATE FUTURE #2 - ISRAEL FIGHTS EXISTENTIAL WAR
1. The 'peace' process continues
2. Syria gets the Golan but guarantees that it will be demilitarized
3. Arafat gets 90% of Judea, Samaria and Gaza
4. Israeli Arabs in the Galilee and Negev areas demand to secede from Israel and become a part of Palestine
5. Israel refuses this demand and the Arabs start and intfada. It spreads to Palestine and attacks begin on Jews both on the roads and in their communities.
6. Israeli intelligence reveals that the Palestinian government is actively supporting, indeed started the anti-Jewish violence.
7. As the Jewish body count rises above the 500 mark, the Israeli government decides its patience has run out and retaliates heavily against Palestinian targets.
8. Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Iran, the US, the UN, and all Moslem and European nations demand that Israel stop its attacks on Palestinians.
9. The US State Department stops all aid to Israel until they cease their brutal attacks on innocent Arabs.
10. The UN passes its 2,345th resolution condemning Israel
11. As support for their position increases Arafat launches his first Katyusha rockets at Tel Aviv, Haifa and other sites on the coastal plain.
12. Israeli armed forces with air support invade Palestine to stop the attacks.
13. Israel's invasion triggers a much wider war.
14. Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Iran launch missiles with anthrax and sarin gas warheads at major populated areas of Israel.
15. Egyptian, Iraqi, and Syrian paratroops land on the Samarian-Judean mountain ridge overlooking Israel. It had been given to Palestine for 'peace.'
16. It takes Syrian tanks 2-4 hours to cross the demilitarized Golan Heights and penetrate Israel.
17. It normally takes Israel 48-72 hours to achieve full mobilization. Unfortunately the Arabs have achieved the line of sight (from the mountains) ability to disrupt Israeli military communications. Also the Palestinians have totally disrupted the road system in Israel, making travel very difficult. Soldiers can not reach their units, tank ammunition can not reach the tanks, food and medical supplies can not reach their destination.
18. Syrian troops close in on Haifa. Egyptian troops have crossed Sinai and are poised in Gaza to strike at Tel Aviv.
19. The desperate Israelis initiate the Sampson Option. This is a last ditch plan to destroy their enemies even at great losses to themselves.
20. Missile silos open in the most unreachable parts of the Negev and Galilee hills. Sleek Jericho 3 missile armed with nuclear warheads are launched deep into the heart of the Arab world. Three hours later the world learns that Cairo, Baghdad, Damascus, Tehran, Riyadh, Beirut, Mecca, Kabul, and Karachi no longer exist.
21. Small tactical nuclear weapons are used against the massed troops of Syria and Egypt.
22. With great difficulty, Israel survives, and sweeps the enemy from her land. Israel's death toll reaches 500,000 with many more wounded.
23. Half the country is uninhabitable due to anthrax and radiation poisoning. Cancer rates soar as a result of radiation in the atmosphere.
ALTERNATE FUTURE #3 - ISRAEL GROWS STRONG AND PROSPERS
1. Opposition to the Golan give away grows. Even the security wing of what used to be the Labor Party have doubts about the wisdom of this move.
2. Before negotiations reach a conclusion, the Knesset brings down the Barak government. New elections are held.
3. Shas spiritual leader Rabbi Ovadiah finally understands the concept of saving Jewish lives (Pikuach Nephish) and realizes with great regret that Oslo and the Golan give away will cause the loss of many lives (and not the other way around).
4. A broad group of Israeli patriots forms a formidable alliance of religious Jews (Shas, NRP, and Agudat Yisrael), Russians ( Yisrael B'Aliyah and its leader Natan Sharansky and Knesset Golan lobby and its leader Yuli Edelstein and MK Avigdor Leiberman of Yisrael Beiteinu), and traditional Zionist parties like the Likud and its various breakaway factions.
5. Labor and Meretz form an alliance with the pro-PLO Arab parties, promising them an end to the Jewish nature of Israel. They propose that instead of a Jewish State there would be a democratic state with a lot of Jews in it.
6. Israel voters having a clear choice between leftist pro-Arabism and Zionism, choose the later.
7. For the first time since 1992 there is a truly Zionist government in Israel with a comfortable majority of 75 (out of 120) seats in the Knesset.
8. The new government begins immediately to correct the mistakes of the past.
9. Israel breaks off negotiations with Syria and issues a stern warning to them not to aid the Hezbollah in Lebanon. Syria is put on notice that any attack on Israeli forces in Lebanon will result in massive retaliation against Syrian interests. And further that Syrian interests will include both in Lebanon and in Syria itself.
10. Of course, after years of calling Israeli bluffs, the Syrians ignore the warning. Hezbollah attacks killing several Israeli soldiers.
11. Israel retaliates on a massive scale, destroying major economic infrastructure in both Lebanon and Syria. Under cover of the attack from the air, Israeli commandos land in Syria and destroy its stocks of antrax bacteria, sarin gas, as well as its SCUD missile capacity. Syrian bases in Lebanon are mercilessly attacked and the weapons supply road from Damascus to southern Lebanon is taken out of operation completely.
12. Naturally the whole world condemns Israel and the Security Council is called into session. Israel in an act of beautiful irony sends a blind, deaf and dumb delegate to the UN.
13. The new Zionist government in Israel sends its troops into Palestinian Authority territory to arrest all know terrorists including Arafat himself. By a large percentage the Knesset votes that the Oslo agreement is null and void due to lack of Palestinian compliance to its terms.
14. The whole of Judea, Samaria, and Gaza are annexed and the Arab residents of the major cities are given autonomy (but not sovereignty ) to run their affairs.
15. The difficult problem of ridding the country of its leftist/socialist/oligarchy is tackled head on.
16. Judges are all reviewed to determine if they guilty of using their leftist orientation to influence their decisions from the bench. The Israeli judiciary will be completely revamped with respectable and honest judges.
17. Once the judiciary is back to a normal democratic norm, an investigation is launched into the conspiracy to defame the religious/Zionist citizens of Israel.
18. The Raviv case and the whole investigation of the Rabin assassination is opened for judicial review.
19. The television stations run by the government will be completely reoriented toward Zionism and away from leftist pro-Arab programming.
20. The educational system will cease to be pro-Arab and will inculcate Jewish and Zionist values in the student body.
21. The private off the shore radio station (Arutz 7) will be permitted to operate from Israeli territory and also allowed to develop a private TV station.
22. The police and the GSS (Israel's Secret Service) will be programed to support the national interests of Israel and not the wishes of Labor/Left/Peace Now supporters.
23. The economy will be allowed to develop freely with as little government interference as possible. The consumer and the environment will be protected. Most government corporations will be de-nationalized.
24. As taxes are slashed, a vigorous free enterprise system will develop, bring untold wealth to the country.
25. Building should be encouraged in all parts of the country (this includes YESHA).
26. Voting rights will be changed as follows:
a. All Jews have the right to vote.
b. Christians and Druze have the right to vote unless there is a history of security offenses.
c. Moslems must perform 3 years of military or civilian service to Israel before obtaining the right to vote. They also must take a loyalty oath to the Jewish state and pass a security examination.
27. Nations posing a security threat to Israel will have that threat neutralized by the Israel Defense Forces. This includes Egypt, Libya, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan et al.
28. Individual terrorists that pose a threat to Israel will be terminated with extreme prejudice.
29. Yes, the world will complain about all these actions and a competent information policy should be incorporated by the new government to counter these complaints. On a more philosophical basis Israel should heed international voices to exactly the degree they heeded the voices of the Jews during WWII. And Israel should protect the rights of Moslems to the exact degree that Moslems protect the rights of Jews.
30. The international community will try to boycott Israel. This effort will fail and is given up in a year or so. You see Jewish merchants worldwide continue to import and export to Israel using a variety of artificial fronts and entities. World commerce can not be controlled as is evident with Iraq today.
31. Local Arab opposition and terrorism is simply crushed. No questions asked.
32. Aliya increases to Israel as a result of the crackdown on the Arab terrorists and because of the generally safe conditions in the country. No longer are there PA terrorist safe havens.
ISRAEL GROWS STRONG AND PROSPERS
THE JEWISH HOMELAND IS SAFE WELL INTO THE 21ST CENTURY
Bernard J. Shapiro is the editor of THE MACCABEAN and the director of the Freeman Center For Strategic Studies