By Emanuel A. Winston

The process of evacuating the Jews from YESHA (YEhuda, SHomron & GAza) began in the early 1980s. The planners and deciders then were leaders of Labor who met with Yassir Arafat to decide how to advance an experimental peace plan which called for the territories of Judea Samaria and Gaza to become Judenrein (without Jews) and turned over to the Palestinians with all its Jewish built housing and its infrastructure. When Oslo was explained to the public, Rabin-Peres-Beilin claimed that, if the Gaza/Jericho first experiment failed, we would get it all back. Need I say more about that deliberate misleading of the public? So far the Left's aberrant plans for peace have failed, along with the objective of displacing the Jews of YESHA now numbering 250,000. However, in a way, the plans still move forward under the moribund guise of the failed so-called "Peace Process".

Presently, many analysts in Israel feel that an amalgam of powers using NATO bombing of Kosovo is establishing a precedent or dress rehearsal for entering conflicts in any sovereign country - although the rules of the UN prohibit and cite such an incursion into a sovereign nation as illegal. There is a reasonable fear in Israel that the American Administration, the EU (European Union), the UN General Assembly would like to find a justifiable excuse to do to Israel what is being done to Yugoslavian Serbs or, if that level of violence was unacceptable, to execute an economic embargo as was done earlier to the nation of South Africa. The underlying concept would be to force compliance of prior agreements by Israel regardless of non-compliance by Arafat's Palestinians.

On March 22 a 2 part report was issued on Email through (Freeman Center) by Mordecai Sones describing Arab first strike preparations in YESHA, including the arms in PA hands, as follows: "122 confirmed or suspected armored vehicles; frequent weapons fire and rehearsals for night attacks near the yishuvim; and specialized gathering of critical intelligence by Arab day laborers on the unprotected yeshivim communities. The number of armored vehicles indicates an overnight or daylight first strike capability against as many as 40 yeshivim. There was a partial IDF admission of Sones charges in MA'ARIV 12/18/98."

This, of course, does not account for what is a far larger volume of illegal heavy weapons including anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles smuggled in over the last 10 years. Neither Clinton nor Albright have objected to the total abrogation of Oslo/Hebron/Wye by Arafat in his growing accumulation of smuggled illegal weapons or to the 40,000-60,000 or more of "Police", a real Army, 2 to 3 times what is allowed in Oslo. Arafat also has 9 separate "Secret Security Forces". One is reminded of the desperate imbalance of forces in 1948 where the Arabs overran Israeli settlements. The new settlers there simply didn't have the fire power to defend. They died before help could arrive.


Since it's highly unlikely Israeli observers would sleep through a mass movement of Arabs from their cities along with the transport of heavy weapons, a strong counter attack by the IDF would be inevitable, provided the civilian government released the military to defend the residents of YESHA. This is the 'Machiavellian' objective of those considering a "Kosovo Syndrome" for Israel. A strong defensive response by the IDF is the main goal and purpose of the attack - to paint the defending Israelis as aggressors to be punished.

If you doubt that such thoughts motivate these actions, ask yourself this question: "Would the Labor Left, along with a lame duck President and a hostile State Department collude with Arafat to rid the West Bank (Judea, Samaria) and Gaza of its Jewish inhabitants?" The answer must be "Yes", given the past recorded collusion to achieve this goal. Arafat's PLO Army will try to capture and consolidate whatever they could hold hostage. Even one or two communities and hostages captured by the PLO gunmen would be a catastrophe. This, of course, would be one part of the orchestrated plan to evict all the Jews. Arafat would then await the swift intervention of the UN, the US, the EU and probably Russia. The attacking Arabs will unlikely know these long range objectives, but their leaders and foreign collaborators will. This planned action to use the Palestinians attack capability is linked to an Arabist White House, a hostile European Union and perhaps the Russians who wish to please the Arab nations for access to their arms' markets. A full uprising initiated by a green light from Arafat and Hamas will be needed. There must be a wide and coordinated burst of hostile action by the Palestinians to insure the kind of attention they require.

Whether such an attack succeeds or fails may be entirely irrelevant. It appears to this writer that the game plan is to create a flash point with very many casualties so the clash will draw immediate attention from the international community, covered intensely by the usually hostile media. The prime objective would be to put the issue directly into the UN General Assembly, using the precedent now established for Kosovo - with modifications. That would quickly establish the fiction that this is now an official and, therefore, a legitimate problem on their agenda to control the Mideast. They will push the UN to the conclusion that they, the UN/US/EU may legitimately and logically enter the conflict with military intervention. Here again, the rules of the UN would be abandoned because a hostile majority of the UN has always sided with the Arabs against Israel in almost every single vote...except the 1947 vote to declare an independent Jewish State in Palestine.

Those most involved will be President Clinton, the US State Department, Tony Blair and Robin Cook of England, Jacques Chirac of France, Gerald Schroeder of Germany, and others of the European Union, ultra Left Israelis and, of course, Arafat with the other Arab nations. As has been the past practice of the UN, they will immediately convene an emergency meeting of the Security Council, followed by one of the General Assembly. Israel will be condemned for its defensive response (called excessive) and a UN Observer Force will be sent to monitor the situation. The more Palestinians casualties that Arafat can generate, the faster the expected response by the UN/US/EU.

In the meantime, the EU nations, in collaboration with the White House and State Department will hourly produce a volume of slanted propaganda designed to push a UN vote to action - much the same as was done with Kosovo. Of course, the media will be primed to accuse and blame Israel, facts notwithstanding. The concealed fact, however, will be that this unholy cabal will have first provoked and collaborated in the attack by the now well-armed civilian Palestinians and their Police Force/Army, resulting in a strong counter defense by Israeli citizens of YESHA and, hopefully, the IDF.

To prepare US citizens to accept a US/UN decision to move against Israel, the propaganda will, of course, show sympathetic video of injured Palestinians but not explain that they had been given the "green light" to come en masse to attack peaceful Israeli villages. The Jewish victims and the aggrieved nation of Israel will suddenly be cast as the aggressor, facts be damned. Go fight the combined might of the ever hostile Media propaganda machines in the US, UN and the EU. I cannot help but wonder if the Leftist Hebrew Press and the Labor/Meretz extremists will join the NEW YORK TIMES, CNN, etc. to condemn Israel's government should she put up a lively and effective defense of YESHA residents.

A UN vote to move against Israel will proceed with the pre-planned follow-on economic embargoes driven by the US and especially the EU which will be made to look like a legitimate and reasonable response to Israel's "cruel" defense. The objective will be to blame the victim and applaud the aggressor. Having used the Orwellian trick of Double Speak before, they will demand that Israel fully withdraw, to the '67 and then '47 borders - despite lack of reciprocity by Arafat. Even as this report is being written, Madame Albright is demanding that Israel carry out the Wye Memorandum, knowing Arafat has by word and deed refused to carry out any of their commitments.

They will also likely demand that Israel give up to Syria the Golan Heights down to Lake Kinneret with its irreplaceable water sources and demand the "right of return" for 5+million Palestinians into cities and villages across Israel. From the beginning of the staged assaults to the demand that all the requirements of the "New State of Palestine" be met, it will all be one neat package, sending Israel over the precipice of destruction.

The attack/uprising can come at any time, irrespective of the May 4th date wherein Arafat may or may not proclaim a Palestinian State. The Clintons and the EU have already given "it" de facto recognition. The subsequent clash will give the world's nations the sought after excuse to pull off a modified Kosovo - with a touch of the South African embargo in the mix. While Israel will probably not be bombed by NATO, we can expect her to be clubbed into submission by sanctions - followed by UN/US "peacekeeping" troops and the enlargement of the American CIA mission implanted to keep a non-existent peace at the "new" borders. Recall the efforts by the US to find any excuse to place sizeable numbers of American troops and equipment on the Golan Heights to create a secure US base of operations in the Middle East next door to Saudi Arabia's oil fields and overlooking Israel. Congress saw through the scheme and stopped it.


We are now observing the Clinton controlled NATO rescue go sour as the bombing increased the massive population transfer of Kosovars, rather than halting it. Some in the media are beginning to catch on that the Moslem KLA (Kosovo Liberation Army) armed by Iran and Afghanistan started the killing of Serbs with the goal of a separate Islamic State. For Israel an unavoidable civil war started by the Palestinians (as in Lebanon) would signal Syria, Iraq, Iran and probably Egypt to take advantage of internal fighting in Israel to attack. Further, as Israel begins to fight back, the evasive unity under an Islamic umbrella sought for many years by various Arab leaders could coalesce. For Israel it's Ein Breira (no choice) but to win. Other nations may believe it would be in their self-interest to sacrifice Israel on the mistaken theory that this would pacify Arab Islam. Unification of Islamic countries with their massive numbers scares the wits out of Christian dominated West and Russia. Should they succeed in stirring up a renewed intifada against Israel with major weapons for the short term benefit of pacifying the Arabs, they will find that they will have instead triggered the unification of Islam against the West - which is their greatest fear.

What drives Mr. and Mrs. Clinton to place a radical Palestinian State in close reach of such easily subverted nations as Saudi Arabia, Jordan or linked to the radical nation of Iraq and Syria? Why would the European Union, so anxious for trade, agree to another disruptive radical State which would link the radicals in the North with the Islamic Brotherhoods in Egypt, Libya, Sudan to the South - endangering Morocco and Algeria with rabid Islamic fundamentalism? These nations my be forced to convert into the virulently hostile form of Islam dangerous to all the nations of the region. We know that the Clintons have accepted campaign contribution funds from various wealthy regions of the world, including the Middle East. We know that the EU and Russia are desperate to sell arms and unconventional weapons' technology of mass destruction, including NBC (Nuclear, Biological and Chemical) to the radical Arab nations. What they believe they need is first for Israel to be reduced in size and military effectiveness, and finally removed as the last phase of ethnic cleansing of the Jews from the Middle East. The absence of Israel is supposed to make the Arabs peaceful and no longer a threat to each other, thereby smoothing the playing field for commerce.

As mentioned earlier, there is another and deeper reason for the Christian West to offer Israel as a delaying tactic to forestall a far greater threat. The intelligence agencies of the Western nations, now including Russia, have long projected deep and threatening problems with Moslem nations as they ramp up their call for Islamic unity against the West, with catastrophic weapons sold by the West.

There is a fear that Islamists will use the focused hatred against Israel to spark a coalition of Moslem nations which will not bode well for the West and Russia, especially from their break-away Islamic Republics. A short term solution is to pacify the Arabs by sacrificing Israel in the hope that the West can offer sufficient trade to keep radical Islamic fundamentalism from boiling over. This will not work, but the interim payment of Israel would be considered a cheap price for the West to pay, provided Israel can be persuaded to put her head on the block "for the good of all". While Islam may briefly pause to make a meal of Israel, they would advance against what they consider the "unholy" Christian West with renewed confidence, vigor and their new super-weapons of mass destruction.


In 1982 I published an analysis stating that the Arab nations were deliberately holding unwanted Palestinians in squalid refugee camps and would be delighted to dump "their" Palestinians, when Arafat could provide a holding area. This first area selected was in the so-called West Bank where, according to reports from Asharq al-Awsat (Saudi-owned daily based in London, 1/29/99) 5 million Palestinians would be dumped in the West Bank - whether they wanted to go or not. Arafat would then have his unstoppable political base and future army. Look at the Kosovo refugees and picture them as Arabs claiming to be displaced Palestinians, arriving at the "new" borders of the "New State of Palestine". What a fantastic staged photo-op as crowds of Arabs pushed out by their brother Arabs mill about and line up for food, etc. Would the US/UN/media blame Syria or Arafat - or would they blame Israel and insist that Israel absorb this hostile mass?

Various American and European interests, supported by naive Jews of the Left are diligently working toward a Palestinian State with Jerusalem as its capital. Arafat proclaims this goal in every speech. Every map, every symbol shows "Palestine" covering all of Israel. An American President desperate for an elusive respected place in history is pushing this unworkable scheme - regardless of its probability of igniting a full scale regional war much as he is doing in Kosovo. It is relevant to note that Clinton, having to face charges of accepting campaign financing from China plus the now withheld Cox report on the President approving the transfer of technology, including nuclear, to China, was probably delighted to start the Kosovo bombing - even if it provokes regional war.

The President and Vice President Al Gore, through the US State Department is using every means possible to trap Israel into a situation where they must send in American/UN troops to quell either the Palestinian uprising or the Israeli defensive counter attack. The Propaganda machinery, with a total disregard for the facts, will tell the public that Israel is being brutal and unfair. Fearful American Jewish leaders will be too easily recruited as they will baskin the attention of Clinton and Albright summoning them to the White House for special briefings, telling them how they must convince the Jewish community that the "peace process" is the only way to "save Israel in spite of herself".

The Palestinians may be able to pull the attack off in part, given the fact that the YESHA communities are restricted to having only light arms. They also know that the men leave for work with only the women and children left home. If the PLO, in fact, attacks as many as 40 communities and succeeds in holding as few as one or two communities and Jewish hostages, it will be a catastrophe. Taking Jewish hostages has become a high priority goal of the Arabs because they know we value our people and will trade hundreds of convicted Arabs for even one of our. The tonnage of arms smuggled into Gaza and the 7 other Arab cities given over to Arafat is enormous, despite Oslo's restrictions. Some may recall Arafat's massive weapons accumulations stacked in captured tunnels in Lebanon, intended to supply the PLO and Syria according to the battle plans also found there for an assault through Lebanon. Such a collection of arms in the Palestinians' hands provides the sure inevitability of their use. Israeli intelligence knows all of this and have reported it upward to a series of Prime Ministers who seems to have accepted a well-armed hostile Arab army assembling in Israel's heartland and on her borders. Pre-emption to save Israeli lives is no longer considered an option in the Prime Minister's office. We have read that when new Israeli Prime Ministers emerge from their first security briefing of the real facts, they are "pale and shaken". What mighty stick isbeing held over the heads of erstwhile staunch defenders of Israeli sovereignty in Judea, Samaria and Gaza - not to mention all of Jerusalem?

The question is: "Should there be a staged Palestinian uprising, would the Israeli Prime Minister hesitate to release the Army and proceed to accommodate a hostile UN backed by an Arabist White House?" (Recall when Golda Meir accommodated Kissinger prior to the Yom Kippur "surprise" war by holding back from a pre-emptive attack which resulted in excessive Israeli casualties.) The EU is impatiently gnashing their teeth as the German rotating President of the EU issues a dictum telling Israel that "Jerusalem is NOT their territory or capital." These hostile nations and pro-Arab financial interests have carefully set the stage for the next move. They need and want a Palestinian uprising with a mix of illegal heavy weapons which Israel cannot avoid unless they immediately evacuate 250,000 people from YESHA to first the '67 borders and later the '47 borders. Arafat is now basing his spurious claims on the 1947 UN Resolution 181 partitioning Israel into a minuscule Jewish State and a larger Arab State. The Arabs rejected 181 violently when 7 Arab armies invaded Israel May 16, 1948.

If there was ever a time for a pre-trial discovery of evidence for a carefully planed war, it is now. Let the questions be put to this PM along with the IDF top brass. Let us also question Shimon Peres, Yossi Beilin, et al to determine if the Left was and is collaborating in any schemes with foreign nations or with the PA to advance the "peace process" the PA refuses to implement. Let us sort out our friends from our enemies and any Jewish collaborators willing to advance their political philosophy by facilitating the deaths or eviction of their fellow Jews in YESHA.

Please make this outline available to your Congress and local media. Presenting the case in full view will make it difficult for the initiation of a Kosovo Syndrome in the Land of Israel. For Israelis, please translate into Hebrew for the various political parties and, above all, the Hebrew press - who seem to be carefully avoiding these issues.


Emanuel A. Winston is a Middle East analyst & commentator and a research associate of the Freeman Center for Strategic Studies.

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